As an investor, I find financial academic research to be a valuable tool in sourcing new ideas and contextualizing current practices or received knowledge among practitioners. From now on, I will try to regularly provide links to recent academic papers worth reading. I have not settled on a title yet. Suggestions welcomed…
In its first iteration, I link to five research papers I came across lately which are worth one’s time. Let me know whether you like that format, find the information useful, and how you would like it improved.
This week’s edition spotlights three papers on ESG investing, one…
Welcome to T.W.I.T #9, where we review this week’s developments and link to five articles worth reading.
The market this week was focused on the Georgia Senate race run-off on Tuesday, assuming Democratic control of the Senate would increase the chance of infrastructure spending and stimulus. It is also worth noting that Bitcoin was up 41% vs USD in the week.
The S&P500 was up 1.8%, led by Energy and Materials. The Technology sector (XLK) was up 0.1%. A mong a reflationary trade, with the US 10y yield crossing 1% Wednesday 6th for the first time since March…
Welcome to T.W.I.T #8, where we review the month to week 48 2020, and dig into Roblox after their S1 filing.
The S&P500 was up 11% for the month, ending up 13% YTD. The Technology sector (XLK) rose 11%. Semiconductors outperformed with the SMH up 18%, whilst Software (IGV) underperformed at 10%. Multiple positive vaccine news this month benefitted riskier factors and brought about sharp reversals, especially in the period from November 3 rdto November 9 th, as we will see below. From a size and style standpoint, Small Cap Value (IWN/SPY) was up 10% in November, 16%…
Welcome to T.W.I.T #7, where we review week 40 2020.
The S&P500 was up 1.6% for the week, ending up 5.2% on a year to date basis. From a sector standpoint, Semiconductors outperformed as STMicro pre-announced positively Thursday, adding to the long list of semiconductor companies benefiting from an Auto Manufacturing rebound. The rotations away from growth towards value AND away from large cap towards small cap continued this week. Both are culprits of a move towards recovery and hope. For the month, mid-cap growth has outperformed large cap growth by 5.6%, and Value outperformed Growth by 4.8%.
Besides the great drama, the EPIC vs App Stores battle crystallizes the growing importance of the technologies powering today’s video games. A whole set of new virtual worlds are being created and with them virtual economies. Just to put things in perspectives, in April, Fortnite counted 350m users who played a total of 3.2bn hours; impressive as this article mentioned Netflix US subscribers watched 6.1bn hours a month during quarantine. The whole catalogue of Netflix vs Fortnite…
Creating an engaging virtual world involves many elements; video game engines are foundational to it. Despite their growing importance, they are surprisingly unknown…
Welcome to T.W.I.T #6, where we review week 35 2020.
The S&P500 was up 3.3% for the week, ending up 8.7% on a year to date basis. From a sector standpoint, Software outperformed as Salesforce experienced its largest price increase since the IPO (more on that below) on Wednesday August 26 th; the SMH was up 2.8% and the SOX +1.7%. QNET Index was up 5%. From Wednesday, we saw a rotation into Software and it seems that Semis funded that.
Now, moving on to specific Tech news
Key Developments in Tech World A lot of IPOs
The S&P500 was up 0.7% for the week, ending up 6% on a year to date basis. From a sector standpoint, Semi outperformed; the SOX was up 1.7%. QNET Index was down 0.7%, pulled down by Netfix (FDN). Software (as measured by IGV) ended the week down 1.5%.
Now, moving on to specific Tech news.
Key Developments in Tech World Internet
This week, besides return metrics, we look at breadth and dispersion of returns. Dispersion of returns is normally good news for skillful stock pickers, because it is easier to differentiate oneself when picking the right stocks. Unfortunately, that tells only half the story; when the proportion of stocks outperforming the index is low, so is the probability of making the right bets. This is the situation we are in in some areas of Tech as I will show below.
As I write these lines, Facebook shares hit an all-time high only a few days ago. Yet, from here, two transformative developments look to set the company on vastly different paths. These developments matter not only for Facebook, but they represent, in my opinion, a Mise en abyme of two long-term trends likely to transform technology investing over the next decade. In this post, we dig deeper into Shops — the next multi-billion opportunity — and TikTok — the mightiest threat to Facebook in the last five years.
How Did We Get There?
Covid-19 has impacted Facebook revenue stream, as…
This week saw a reversal from last. Indices closed down, growth and large-cap lead, value lagged. The chart below from Koyfin illustrates what happened in factors.
The dislocation happened from Wednesday, as Powell committed to ZIRP through 2022 and delivered sobering comments, leading to flattering of the yield curve. Naturally, this benefits long-duration/growth assets. Volatility spiked too, with the VIX moving up by the largest extent since the trough of the bear market Mid-March. See the chart below to see how the week unfolded.